Very clearly, at several junctures, parties interested in facilitating a Deshaun Watson trade have tried to make it happen. There was the push before the draft, one at the start of training camp, again at the beginning of the season and, now, finally, in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline.
To this point, every effort on the part of Watson’s camp, and on the part of the Texans, to get the embattled 26-year-old quarterback moved has failed.
Why? Well, for all the reports of teams’ calling and deals’ looming that have fizzled into a big puddle of nothing, there are really three people on the ground for this one, two with different motivations than the third. One is Watson himself. Another is Texans owner Cal McNair. Those two, estranged since McNair failed to follow through on a promise to involve Watson throughout the team’s coach/GM search, are on the same page—both want a separation.
The third party, Houston GM Nick Caserio, is the one charged with pulling off the deal. And his role in all of this is more important than most people have considered.
He’s also the reason I think there’s a good chance there won’t be a deal for Watson next week.
Just put yourself in Caserio’s shoes. He was hired in January, with no first- or second-round pick in his first draft as a GM, a messy cap situation and an aging roster. When he took the job, its allure Watson, a young franchise quarterback under contract for another five years. But first with Watson’s trade request, and then with 23 lawsuits filed alleging sexual misconduct, it steadily became clear that Caserio wouldn’t have him either.
Less than 10 months later, his football team is 1–6. To this point, it’s been led by a third-round rookie named Davis Mills, who, while talented, hasn’t asserted himself as the long-term answer. The players, for their part, have shown effort and character. And, still, there’s no question this is a ground-up operation for the (still) new guy in charge.
All of which is why he take a discount for Watson or allow himself to be held at gunpoint to make a trade. Watson is far and away the Texans’ most valuable asset, and the chip that Caserio can use to supercharge the rebuild. If he takes 50 cents on the dollar? Or gives another team six-ways-from-Sunday protections on a trade? Then, Caserio’s leaving himself with no quarterback or the capital to build on any sort of expedited timetable.
And here’s another key question: What does it benefit Caserio to trade Watson now?
By trading him now, you’re making the team you’re trading him to better, necessarily devaluing the picks you’re trading for. Conversely, if you wait until February, you know where any 2022 pick you’re getting will be. Also, there’d likely be more suitors to drive the price up, and maybe more clarity as to Watson’s standing both legally and with the league.
The downside of waiting is carrying Watson on the roster the rest of the year, sure. But I’d argue the Texans have already weathered the storm on that. They dealt with the awkward days of July and August. They’ve had him in the building, and around the guys, and that’s all been fine. They’ve paid nearly half his salary. There is, of course, the risk that Watson’s legal situation worsens, but it’s tough to guess on the unknown there.
As for what we do know, I’d think we can say two things. One, the Texans’ best player is someone who hasn’t played a snap for them, or anyone, this year. And two, they’d be better off keeping it that way than dealing him off for anything but full value.
Which, I believe, is why Caserio to this point has done the right thing, no matter how much the other two principals involved might be wishing for a different result.
