Joey Feazel, the head of football trading at Caesars Sportsbook, took some time to decide whether he would be a bigger Titans fan or Panthers fan for NFL Week 9.
It’s a bit pointless to root for the lowly Titans, who have covered against the spread only twice this season. The Titans are getting 9.5 points for Sunday’s home game against the Chargers, and the Panthers are being spotted 13.5 points for Sunday’s matchup in Green Bay.
Feazel eventually went with the Titans. He needed a few seconds to respond because the Packers looked legit in beating up the Steelers last week. Now they host the inconsistent Panthers, who were just crushed by the Bills, possibly giving bettors something to think about. However, the decision became easy when Feazel remembered the Packers might be more of a good team than a great team because they’re 3–4 against the spread this season.
Green Bay failed to cover as touchdown favorites vs. Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati and Arizona. But the Packers did cover when the line was -3 or less against the Steelers, Commanders and Lions.
“Even though they’re one of the best NFC teams, and we know they’re one of the best NFL teams talent wise, they just don’t cover football games,” Feazel says about the Packers. “I think bettors notice that. Week in and week out, they’ll lay the numbers with the Packers, and they’re like, ‘Well, I’m not going to get burned by the Packers again.’ So I think you’ll see some hesitancy with the Packers laying that big of a number.”
If you’re looking to lay the points, it’s never a bad idea to go against the one-win Titans.
“One thing the bettors do know every week though, they bet against the Titans and they cash,” Feazel says. “It’s going to be what has worked in weeks prior. I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of eyeballs on that Panthers-Packers game anyway.”
With more insight from Feazel, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 9.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 9
The sharps are expecting a close NFC North matchup in Detroit, with many of them taking the Vikings and the 8.5 points.
The Lions crushed the short-handed Buccaneers in Week 7 before heading into their bye week. The Vikings were embarrassed by the Chargers last week, but could get a boost from the return of J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t played since Week 2 due to an ankle injury.
“We’ve seen this line go up to -10 on Sunday, but saw it come back down toward the Vikings,” Feazel says.
Feazel said the public will also be all over the Ravens for Lamar Jackson’s return on Thursday night, but didn’t rule out the possibility of seeing some sharp play on the Dolphins, a 7.5-point underdog at home.
“I anticipate seeing some sharp play in this one,” Feazel says. “I don’t think I’ve seen anything [significant] yet. Usually, any time a home team is getting 7.5 points, that’s generally where we’re going to see it. The problem here, on the other side, is the matchup of the Ravens vs. the Dolphins.
“And dogs haven’t been doing well lately, which doesn’t necessarily predict the future, but that definitely adds some hesitancy, especially among the worst teams being able to cover some of these numbers.”
Odds Movement NFL Week 9
Speaking of the sharps, it appears that most of them will be backing the Chiefs for Sunday’s showdown in Buffalo. Kansas City went from a 1.5-point favorite to laying two points at most sportsbooks.
“I think we’re going to see more sharp action on the Chiefs just because I think the Chiefs are slowly really building on their offense week in and week out, and we already know they have a stout defense,” Feazel says. “I think we’re going to see sharper Chiefs action going into this one.”
Feazel is expecting this game to generate the bulk of the money on Sunday, with bettors pounding the over on player props and the total of 52.5 points.
“At Caesars Sportsbook, we’re going to be hoping for a 3–0 ball game,” Feazel jokingly said, “but all eyes will be on that game this week.”
There could be drastic odds movement for Bears vs. Bengals because it’s unknown whether Cincinnati will start Jake Browning or Joe Flacco, who’s dealing with a shoulder injury. Chicago is now laying three points after being a 1.5-point favorite to open the week. If Flacco is ruled out and the Bengals start Browning, the line could go as high as -4.5 for the Bears, according to Feazel.
“We are seeing some Bears action in this one and I anticipate that continuing and not necessarily because it’s love for the Bears,” Feazel says, “knowing that this Bengals defense has trouble stopping anybody. If you put an offensive coach like Ben Johnson in that scenario, he’s usually going to thrive. That’s why you’re seeing the total [51.5] so high in this one.”
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 9
Chargers vs. Titans might not be the biggest liability game of the week. Vegas oddsmakers will be rooting hard for Tyler Shough’s starting debut with the Saints, who are 14-point road underdogs against the Rams.
But Feazel mentioned there could be some sharp action on New Orleans if this line goes to 14.5 points. Los Angeles isn’t as explosive offensively like Detroit and Indianapolis.
“One-way traffic on the Rams,” Feazel says. “Probably even more so than the Chargers are getting right now against the Titans.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 9 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs
I’m going against the sharps here. The Bills made some impressive adjustments coming out of the bye week to beat up on the Panthers.
I think Josh Allen’s offense can run up the scoreboard on an older Chiefs defense that showed signs of fatigue earlier in the season.
Enticing Bet: Broncos (+1.5) at Texans
I can’t get behind the inconsistent Texans, even at home. Based on how well Bo Nix has played the past two games, he’s capable of delivering positive results against a tough Houston defense. I can see Denver winning this coin-flip game.
Moneyline Dog: Giants (+124) vs. 49ers
The 49ers’ injuries have finally caught up to them. They were sluggish in Houston and now get to travel to New York. Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart tends to play better at home, but this team is going to need Tyrone Tracy Jr. to step up in Cam Skattebo’s absence.
SuperDog: Vikings (+8.5) at Lions
I’ll go with the sharps here and bet that Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell gets a better performance from his team 10 days after the stinker in Los Angeles.
Not So Risky: Colts (-3) at Steelers
Don’t hesitate on this one. The Colts are for real and the Steelers are total pretenders. This fast-aging Pittsburgh defense is going to have plenty of fits against Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and all the other weapons for Indianapolis.
Stay Away: Bears (-3) at Bengals
I will not be getting burned by the Bears again. They can’t be trusted, not even against the Bengals’ bad defense and a potential matchup against Browning. Chicago didn’t do much against Tyler Huntley’s Ravens last week.
Parlay: Chargers (-8.5) at Titans; Saints (+14) at Rams; Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
As mentioned above, fading the Titans leads to cash. I’m not sure the Rams’ offense can cover that many points. And the Cowboys’ offense will bounce back against a mediocre Cardinals squad.
Favorite Fave: Patriots (-5.5) vs. Falcons
The Patriots answered many questions in last week’s dismantling of the Browns. It will say a lot if the Patriots cruise against the Falcons, a team that beat the Bills earlier this season.
Best Over/Under Total: Chiefs-Bills (under 52.5, -112)
Sorry, public. I’m going with the under here. This will be a slow-paced, playoff-like game.
