It's been a rough start to the 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, but we took a step in the right direction in Week 8, sporting a 7-6 record for +2.28 units, including cashing in on the Jets as moneyline underdogs against the Bengals.
We move on to Week 9, which will feature 14 games. The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on BYE this week, but there are still 28 teams in action.
I have all my bets for Week 9 locked in, so let's dive into them.
Road to 272 Bets Week 8 Record
7-6 (+2.28 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
54-66-1 (-9.12 units)NFL Week 9 Best Bets for Every GameRavens vs. Dolphins Prediction
For the sake of the Road to 272 Bets, I have to lock in my bets on Monday afternoon, and at this point, I can't feel confident laying over a touchdown with the Baltimore Ravens. We still don't know if Lamar Jackson is going to suit up on Thursday, and if he doesn't, expect this line to come down below a touchdown.
Even if Jackson does play, I'm not yet convinced that the Ravens are back to being as good a team as we expected them to be before the season began. Sure, they won and covered against the Bears in Week 8, but their defense still showed some issues and had a Net Yards per Play of 0.0 at the end of the game.
The Dolphins showed they still have some fight left in them so I'll take them with the 7.5 points on Thursday night.
Bears vs. Bengals Prediction
I was confused why the Bengals were such big favorites against the Jets last week, and they proved they weren't deserving of being so, and now they're just 2-point favorites against a solid Bears team on Sunday. The Bengals remain a bottom-five team in the NFL, ranking 29th in DVOA and 31st in Net Yards per Play.
The Bears come in at 19th in DVOA, and while they still have plenty of areas they can improve on, they're a significantly better team than the Bengals and should be at least field goal favorites, in my opinion. Put the Joe Flacco Thursday night performance from two weeks ago out of your mind; the Bengals are the far worse team in this matchup.
Falcons vs. Patriots Prediction
At this point of the season, we sort of know what we're going to get from the Falcons. In games you think they should win, they'll lose, and games you think they'll lose, they'll be competitive in. This is the ultimate buy-low spot after losing to both the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. Hopefully, Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London will be healthy for this game, and if they are, they could give the Patriots a scare.
The Patriots' underlying metrics are concerning. Their defense is 28th in the NFL in DVOA and 19th in opponent success rate. They're going to get exposed sooner or later, and if the "good" version of the Falcons offense shows up on Sunday, this could be the week that it does. I'll take a shot on Atlanta as a 2-1 underdog.
Chargers vs. Titans Prediction
I believe that we, as bettors, need to realize that this year's version of the NFL has completely separate tiers of teams. In years past, bad teams could put together a great performance and take down one of the best teams in the NFL. Now, I simply don't see that happening. The bottom five teams, of which the Titans are the worst of them, have little to no chance of being competitive against a top 10 team, let alone in it outright.
The Titans are last in the league in DVOA, net yards per play, and EPA. They have no redeeming quality on either side of the football and I have no interest in betting on them against a team as good of the Chargers, especially with the spread set at just 9.5.
Vikings vs. Lions Prediction
If you're a believer in the advanced metric DVOA, then you have to love this Lions team. Detroit enters Week 9, fresh off its BYE, ranking fifth in the NFL in offensive DVOA, first in defensive DVOA, and fifth in special teams DVOA. Now, they get to host a Minnesota Vikings team that has struggled mightily offensively of late, with no answer at the quarterback position.
The Vikings defense was elite, but they're now outside the top 10 in defensive DVOA and ninth in opponent EPA per play. Their biggest strength is their ability to rush the passer, but the Lions' elite offensive line will be able to nullify it.
Dan Campbell has also historically performed well off a bye. If that trend holds, the Lions should win and cover in this spot.
Panthers vs. Packers Prediction
The Panthers aren't nearly as good as people thought they were after a few wins against bad teams, and they proved that when they were steamrolled by the Bills last week, the first elite team they've faced this season. Now, they have a second straight game against an elite opponent, and I don't think things will go well for them.
The Packers are first in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+1.3), while also ranking sixth in DVOA, and second in EPA. I think they're a top-five team in the league and Green Bay will prove that on Sunday.
Colts vs. Steelers Prediction
While the Colts' offense continues to roll, their defense has shown some flashes of issues that Indianapolis fans and bettors should be concerned about. The Colts are now 10th in opponent EPA, 24th in opponent success rate, and 16th in defensive DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Steelers' offense is better than you might think, coming in the top 10 in offensive DVOA and EPA per play.
The Colts' defensive issues are going to cost them at some point this season, but I'm not sure if this is the week it happens. Instead, I feel more confident betting on both offenses to have yet another solid offensive performance. I'll take the OVER.
49ers vs. Giants Prediction
I'm surprised this total is this high with the amount of injuries both teams are suffering. The Giants have no Malik Nabers or Cam Skattebo, which leaves them with little to no offensive weapons left to utilize. It's yet to be determined if the 49ers' offense will be healthier this week and if Brock Purdy will be back in the lineup, but they still aren't back to being 100% and as a result, have become one-dimensional with Christian McCaffrey.
Neither defense is good enough to write home about, but I think this total is too high with the list of injuries for both teams on the offensive side of the ball.
Broncos vs. Texans Prediction
The total between the Broncos and Texans is already low, but it deserves to be even lower. There's a strong argument to be made that the Texans and Broncos have the two best defenses in the NFL. The Texans are first in opponent EPA per play, and the Broncos are first in opponent success rate. The two teams are also top five in opponent yards per play; the Broncos have allowed just 4.6 yards per snap, and the Texans have allowed just 4.8.
The Texans' offense struggles when they face a strong pass rush, and now they have to face a Broncos' defense that leads the NFL in sack percentage at 12.29%. Meanwhile, the Broncos' offense struggles against a strong secondary, and the Texans rank first and second in opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate, respectively.
I predict both offenses will struggle in a big way. I expect the total to stay UNDER 39.5.
Saints vs. Rams Prediction
Continuing the theme of fading the bottom five teams in the NFL, I won't hesitate to lay the 13.5 points with the Los Angeles Rams against the New Orleans Saints. The Rams are fresh off their BYE week and are one of the few elite teams in the league, ranking fourth in DVOA and top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. The Rams also come into this game ranking third in the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.2.
The Saints are starting to implode a bit. They had a chance to make a statement against an overrated Buccaneers team in Week 8 and delivered a goose egg. They have few weapons on either side of the football and rank in the bottom 10 in almost every metric.
As I wrote above, the more I watch this season, the more I think we shouldn't overthink these lopsided affairs. The betting market treats these games like the underdog has a fighting chance, which used to be the case in previous iterations of the. I don't think that's the case anymore. The Rams should cruise to a win.
Jaguars vs. Raiders Prediction
I'm low on the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I don't think they are nearly as good as their record indicates. One of the most glaring issues for the Jaguars has been the play of their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick ranks 32nd amongst starting quarterbacks this season in Expected Points Added plus Completion Percentage Over Expected. Only Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel rank worse in that metric. Most importantly, Geno Smith ranks 29th in that spot, three spots above Lawrence.
The Jaguars' overall team metrics also aren't as good as their record would indicate, ranking 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), which is one spot below the Raiders, who come in at 22nd.
The Jaguars are prime to be upset in this spot.
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills' offense remains one of the best in the NFL, but their defense has struggled. They rank just 13th in opponent EPA per play and 26th in defensive DVOA. Bills fans should be scared of this year's version of the Chiefs, which has been far better by almost every metric than they were when they went 15-2 last season. Their offense is better than it's been in years, including ranking fifth in DVOA and fourth in EPA per play, but they are also better than the Bills defensively.
The Chiefs are a step above the Bills at this point in this season. I think they win and cover in the one-point spread in this spot.
Seahawks vs. Commanders Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks still don't get the respect they deserve. The Seahawks are second in Net Yards per Play and first in DVOA, and Sam Darnold has ranked inside the top three in EPA+CPOE composite. On top of all that, they've been the best team in special teams DVOA as well.
The Seahawks have been far better than the betting market is giving them credit for, especially against a middling Commanders team. This is my best bet for the week.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Prediction
Kyler Murray is on track to be back for the Cardinals, but that may not be good news for Arizona fans and bettors. Jacoby Brissett ranks 13th in EPA+CPOE, while Murray comes in at 21st in that stat. Yes, he gets to face a bad Cowboys' offense, but I don't think he's played well enough for the Cardinals to only be 3-point underdogs.
The Cowboys are fifth in the league in EPA per play and fourth in offensive DVOA. They're going to score early and often in this game, and I don't think the Cardinals' offense will be able to match the rate they're scoring at.
